China posted robust commodities imports in May, defying stutters in the wider economy, as buyers took advantage of weaker international prices and energy importers stocked up ahead of peak demand in the summer.
Traders may also be anticipating that Beijing will soon ramp up stimulus to revive growth. Unless demand lifts significantly, much of the extra supply, especially of industrial materials, could end up being stockpiled. That would further weigh on prices as the usual lull in factory and construction activity takes hold over the summer.
Coal imports remained elevated, and natural gas shipments rose, in what’s typically the low season for consumption due to moderate temperatures. Crude oil was another bright spot as the rebound in Chinese consumption and travel outpaces its industrial recovery.
Copper imports are the only major commodity where imports are lagging behind last year’s pace. Weak exports of Chinese products have added more pressure to metals markets that are already contending with fragile domestic demand from the manufacturing and building sectors.
Iron ore imports increased both month-on-month and year-on-year despite a disappointing second-quarter construction season. At the same time, exports of steel products rose to their highest since 2016 as material unwanted in the home market flowed overseas.
Copper imports had their best month since January. But they still fell year-on-year, and over the first five months are 11% lower than the same period in 2022.
China’s imports of copper concentrate and ore hit another record as more metal is processed onshore to the detriment of refined purchases.
China’s oil imports topped 50 million tons for the second time this year as new plants such as PetroChina Co.’s mega-refinery in Guangdong started commercial operations.
Gas imports rose above 10 million tons for the first time in 2023 after prices sank to near two-year lows, while coal shipments stayed close to the levels of previous months despite a build up in inventory.
Soybean imports hit a record after some cargoes stuck at ports due to tighter inspections finally cleared customs.
Edible oils fell from the previous month, but have still more than doubled over the year-to-date as catering and restaurant demand recovers after the pandemic.
The Week’s Diary
(All times Beijing unless noted otherwise.)
Wednesday, June 7
• China’s 1st batch of May trade data, including steel, aluminum & rare earth exports; steel, iron ore & copper imports; soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports; oil, gas & coal imports; oil products imports & exports. ~11:00
• China’s foreign reserves for May, including gold
• Towngas AGM and press briefing on business prospects, 12:00 in HK
• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
• Chongqing exchange hosts oil & gas summit, day 1
Thursday, June 8
• Chongqing exchange hosts oil & gas summit, day 2
Friday, June 9
• China’s inflation data for May, 09:30
• China to release May aggregate financing & money supply by June 15
• China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report
• China weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• Chongqing exchange hosts oil & gas summit, day 3
On the Wire
Shares of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. slumped as Morgan Stanley slashed its recommendation to underweight, expecting geopolitical tensions to hinder the Chinese battery giant’s expansion into US markets.
China’s demand for energy and basic materials could become collateral damage amid curbs on the country’s infrastructure bond sales, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Citigroup Inc. lowered its price forecast for iron ore as China’s stimulus measures will be difficult to translate into robust demand.
Potash prices in China have returned to pre-war levels, signaling a new floor for global fertilizer prices.